![Heathrow has said passenger numbers were 60% lower in November than before the coronavirus pandemic and there were “high cancellations” among business travellers concerned about being trapped overseas for Christmas as Omicron spreads. The UK’s largest airport said the government’s travel restrictions had dealt a fresh blow to travel confidence and predicted it was likely to take several years for passenger numbers to return to pre-pandemic levels. This week ministers said passengers arriving in the UK would have to take a pre-departure Covid test, as well as a post-flight test, because of fears about the spread of the new variant. “[The] high level of cancellations by business travellers concerned about being trapped overseas because of pre-departure testing shows the potential harm to the economy of travel restrictions,” the airport said in an update. Heathrow said the drop in traveller confidence owing to the new travel restrictions had negated the benefit of reopening the all-important corridor to North America for business and holiday travel last month. Eleven African countries have been added to the government’s red list, requiring travellers to quarantine before reuniting with families. “By allowing Brits to isolate at home, ministers can make sure they are reunited with their loved ones this Christmas,” said John Holland-Kaye, the chief executive of Heathrow. “It would send a strong signal that restrictions on travel will be removed as soon as safely possible to give passengers the confidence to book for 2022, opening up thousands of new jobs for local people at Heathrow. Let’s reunite families for Christmas.” Heathrow said that if the government could safely signal that restrictions would be lifted soon, then employers at Heathrow would have the confidence to hire thousands of staff in anticipation of a boost in business next summer. The airport is expecting a slow start to 2022, finishing next year with about 45 million passengers – just over half of pre-pandemic levels. This week Tui, Europe’s largest package holiday operator, said it expected bookings for next summer to bounce back to 2019 levels. However, Heathrow said on Friday not to expect the aviation industry to recover for several years. “We do not expect that international travel will recover to 2019 levels until at least all travel restrictions (including testing) are removed from all the markets that we serve, at both ends of the route, and there is no risk of new restrictions, such as quarantine, being imposed,” the airport said.](http://bmmagazine.co.uk.temp.link/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/shutterstock_1100012546-scaled.jpg)
Greggs is increasing prices on some of its best-known menu items as the bakery chain seeks to offset rising employment costs while managing softer sales growth.
From Thursday, customers will pay 5p more for certain baked goods such as the empire biscuit, while breakfast deals will also rise in price. The two-part breakfast deal, which includes a roll and a drink, will increase from £2.95 to £3.15, while the three-part version, adding a side like a yoghurt pot or hash browns, will rise from £3.95 to £4.15.
Chief executive Roisin Currie said the group remained committed to keeping prices as low as possible but added: “We are operating in an inflationary environment.”
The price hikes were announced alongside third-quarter results showing like-for-like sales up 1.5% in the 13 weeks to 27 September, slowing from 2.6% growth in the first half of the year.
Greggs had previously warned that summer heatwaves dampened demand for hot baked goods in July, forcing it to cut annual earnings guidance. The company now expects full-year operating profit to be “modestly” below the £195.3m recorded in 2024, with analysts forecasting around £176m.
Encouragingly, trading conditions improved in August and September, allowing Greggs to hold its revised guidance. That reassurance triggered a 7.2% share price rally, lifting the stock to £17.20 and squeezing hedge funds who had shorted the shares. Greggs remains one of the most shorted companies in London, with 5.1% of its stock on loan to investors betting against it.
Greggs, which operates 2,675 shops, opened a net 57 new outlets this year but now expects to add around 120 net stores in 2025 — down from earlier guidance of 140–150, citing “timing of opportunities.” The chain continues to expand in supermarkets including Tesco and Sainsbury’s, while targeting new transport, roadside and retail park locations.
Currie dismissed talk of “peak Greggs,” insisting the company could grow its estate to more than 3,000 shops long term. She pointed to evolving customer tastes, with the bakery introducing high-protein options such as egg pots and protein shakes alongside its traditional sausage rolls and steak bakes.
Analysts remain cautious. Panmure Liberum noted that while slower store openings were a concern, an improving cost outlook supported confidence in Greggs’ guidance. Clive Black at Shore Capital warned that falling like-for-like volumes posed longer-term questions about whether Greggs has reached its growth ceiling, commenting:
“Like-for-like volume is not the be-all and end-all, but it is going to be a key concern of existing and prospective investors.”
Despite lingering doubts, the market rally suggests investors see Greggs’ cost discipline and resilience as positives — at least for now.
