Gold has surged to a fresh all-time high, fuelling predictions it could break through the $4,000 mark before the end of the year.
The precious metal climbed to $3,778 per ounce this week, up 42% since January, while silver reached $42 per ounce – a gain of 45%. The rally has been underpinned by a combination of central bank buying, sticky inflation, geopolitical instability and concerns about equity market valuations.
JPMorgan forecasts gold could top $4,000 by the second quarter of 2026, but several analysts believe the landmark may be reached sooner.
Anita Wright, Chartered Financial Planner at Ribble Wealth Management, said momentum was strong: “There’s every chance the gold and silver momentum could carry further. Silver could climb toward the $50s per ounce by year-end, with gold testing the $3,800–$3,900 range. Investors are restructuring portfolios to include a higher weighting in gold and silver. For many, these metals are no longer simply ‘insurance policies’ but strategic allocations.”
Paul Williams, Managing Director at Solomon Global, added: “Gold has scaled yet another all-time high today and is in touching distance of $3,800, having hit dozens of records this year. In the past month alone, the price has risen by $400. With inflation fears, Fed rate cut expectations, a softening dollar and central bank accumulation, $4,000 by Christmas is a strong possibility.”
The rally has also sparked a rise in retail activity, with more households selling or borrowing against jewellery. Jim Tannahill, Managing Director at pawnbroker Suttons and Robertsons, said: “Now is an ideal time to cash in on old or unwanted items. Right now you’d receive almost 80% more than in September 2023. We’ve seen a sharp rise in people selling jewellery and using gold as collateral for loans.”
However, others warned of overheating. Samuel Mather-Holgate of Mather and Murray Financial said: “Precious metals are already at record highs and could be ripe for a correction. If geopolitical tensions flare, capital will flow into gold – but if stability returns, money could quickly move in reverse. It might be time to take profits rather than dive in.”
Eamonn Prendergast, Chartered Financial Adviser at Palantir Financial Planning, cautioned against “fear of missing out”, saying: “Gold glitters as uncertainty bites, but it should only ever be part of a diversified portfolio. It pays no dividends, so returns rely solely on price moves.”
Despite mixed views, market momentum remains firmly upward, leaving investors to weigh whether the rally is a bubble – or just the start of a new era for precious metals.
